This Remarkable Golden Spell Propels Aston Villa's Unlikely Championship Bid

A mere two months in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as his coach scolded him for missing a pass in behind. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his displays were an indicator or the source of Villa's more general malaise.

On Sunday, however, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. After the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery discarded his coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their initial half-dozen matches, now sit a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Serious Title Contenders?

That’s a particularly tough question to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, while the positive results have stacked up.

According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club which has put together a ten-match winning streak, they seem curiously susceptible – yet right now the fine lines are swinging for them.

The Reliant Strategy

Their recent policy looks like to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with two precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and once more against United.

His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

Can It Last?

Logic says not. Against United, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival they must confront in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.

Reasons for Optimism

Could it be another reality in which, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.

• The centre-forward could start scoring again.
• The attacking talent may rediscover the player he resembled during his peak.
• The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.

This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial player for the national team.

The current run is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. When the match-winner faced the Villa faithful when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.