An Prediction Market User Earned $Nearly Half a Million from Bets Predicting Maduro's Downfall.

An individual profited close to $500,000 by predicting the removal of the Venezuelan leader immediately preceding it was made public, raising questions about the possibility of profiting from inside knowledge of American actions.

Sudden Shift in Predictions

Predictions made on the forecasting site, an online prediction market, that the Venezuelan president would be out of power by the end of January rose in the time leading up to President Donald Trump declared on the weekend that Maduro had been taken into custody.

A particular user, which became a member recently and took four positions, all on Venezuela, made more than $436,000 from a initial bet of over $32,000.

Who placed the bet is a mystery. The anonymous account had only a cryptographic address for identification.

Odds Fluctuate Before Public Statement

Market statistics shows that users estimated the likelihood of the president's removal at just 6.5% in the midday period of the prior Friday.

Yet the market's assessment had increased to 11% by the end of the day and spiked dramatically in the morning of the next day, pointing to a rapid movement in positions immediately prior to the social media post was made.

"This specific wager has all the hallmarks of a transaction based on non-public details," commented Dennis Kelleher.

A handful of other platform users also earned significant sums from bets on the same outcome.

Political Attention Emerges

Some lawmakers are starting to take note.

Proposed legislation introduced on Monday would prevent federal workers from making trades on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a market.

Market Background

Forecasting platforms have become increasingly popular in recent years, with users able to predict everything from sports to politics.

The industry faced scrutiny under the previous administration. But it has experienced less resistance during the Trump presidency.

Trading on insider information is illegal in the stock market, but there are more ambiguous rules in the event betting arena.

A company executive for another major platform said their site "strictly forbids such activities of any form."